市场化程度对花卉产业组织影响实证分析

以刘易斯市场规模分析框架为基础,采用2008—2014年中国各省区市花卉产业的面板数据,对市场化进程与花卉产业组织的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:市场化程度对企业数量、小企业数量和小企业比例具有正向影响作用,市场化是促进花卉产业组织演化的重要因素,有利于优化花卉产业组织的规模和结构。因此,政府应该从市场组织与制度完善角度维护好市场竞争秩序,企业应该提升核心竞争力而不是简单扩大规模。     

河南省传统村落空间分布特征及影响因素研究

[目的]分析河南省传统村落的空间分布特征及其影响因素,以期为中原地区传统村落的建设发展提供指导。[方法]文章通过谷歌地理信息系统及Arc GIS10. 2软件对河南省124个国家级传统村落的空间分布类型、分布格局、分布均衡型及影响因素进行分析,采用最邻近距离法、核密度估计法及地理集中程度等方法揭示其空间分布特征及其形成的影响因素。[结果]最邻近距离法分析R=0. 628,小于1,分布类型为凝聚型。核密度分析中,整体空间分布呈现3个核心区域,平顶山东北区域,豫西北沿省边界呈带状分布及豫南信阳南部,空间分布受地理、经济和文化等因素影响。[结论]河南省传统村落的空间分布属凝聚型不均衡分布。从地级市层面上分析,主要集中在平顶山东部、信阳南部和三门峡地区;从分区层面上,以豫中较多,豫北、豫西和豫南其次,豫东基本空白。形成原因与地理高程、社会经济和历史事件有关。交通不便、经济相对发达或相对落后、历史事件少发的区域,传统村落保存较为完整。     

中国海外耕地投资的区位特征及其影响因素*——基于2000—2016年土地矩阵网络数据

［目的］分析中国海外耕地投资的区位特征及其影响因素，以促进我国海外耕地投资的合理布局，提高农业投资效率。［方法］以2000—2016年中国137宗海外耕地投资项目及其所涉及的35个东道国作为研究样本，运用Spearman相关分析方法，分别以耕地投资面积和耕地投资项目数量作因变量，研究其与各影响因素的相关关系，并用对应分析法进一步探究各东道国的相对优势。［结果］（1）我国海外耕地投资区域集中在东南亚且由周边国家向外扩展，被投资耕地用途多样，投资规模自2004年开始急剧上升，近年来呈下降趋势。（2）我国海外耕地投资以效率寻求型和市场寻求型为主，倾向于资源丰富、与我国距离较近、制度相似、经济关系良好但发展水平不高的国家。（3）根据各地区的比较优势，亚洲国家适合效率寻求型和市场寻求型的企业投资，欧洲和美洲国家适合资源寻求型和战略资产寻求型的企业投资，非洲国家适合资源寻求型、效率寻求型和市场寻求型的企业投资。［结论］中国农业企业应结合企业投资目标和各地区的比较优势，合理选择投资区位，适时转变投资策略与模式，积极防范海外耕地投资过程中的自然风险、政治环境风险和道德风险等，以提高投资效果。     

玉米收储制度改革背景下旱作农业区农户杂粮种植意愿影响因素分析——基于内蒙古自治区、辽宁省411个农户的调查数据

[目的]利用内蒙古自治区乌兰察布丰镇市、凉城县、兴和县,辽宁省朝阳市朝阳县411个农户调查数据,分析玉米收储制度改革背景下北方旱作区农户杂粮种植影响因素。[方法]首先对户主个人特征、家庭禀赋两个一般影响因素进行分析,然后重点对自然和社会资源特征、市场环境、政策环境3个影响因素进行分析。[结果](1)由于户主年龄偏大且文化程度较低、户均从事农业生产的劳动力数量和拥有的耕地面积都较少,农户面对玉米市场价格下跌改种其他农作物的能力较弱;(2)尽管农户普遍认同杂粮适合当地自然条件,但是缺乏企业带动,订单种植杂粮的比例较低,农户种植杂粮存在较高的销售风险;(3)虽然农户普遍预期玉米市场价格持平和走低,但是多数农户对杂粮市场价格没有明确预期,杂粮收益存在较高的不确定性;(4)农户普遍不了解玉米收储制度改革的具体内容,且绝大部分农户没有获得杂粮生产支持,不利于引导农户种植杂粮。[结论]应从加强政策宣传、扶持杂粮加工龙头企业、扩大杂粮补贴范围等方面着手,引导北方旱作区农户种植杂粮,减少玉米收储制度改革对其收入的冲击。     

On the predictability of the distribution of excess returns in currency markets

This paper investigates the predictability of foreign exchange (FX) volatility and liquidity risk factors on returns to the carry trade, an investment strategy that borrows in currencies with low interest rates and invests in currencies with high interest rates. Previous studies have suggested that this predictability could have been spuriously accounted for due to the persistence of the predictors. The analysis uses a predictive quantile regression model developed by Lee (2016) that allows for persistent predictors. We find that predictability changes remarkably across the entire distribution of currency excess returns. Predictability weakens substantially in the left tail once persistence is accounted for, implying a moderate negative predictive relation between FX volatility risk and carry trade returns. By contrast, it becomes stronger in the right tail. Furthermore, we provide evidence that FX volatility risk still dominates liquidity risk after controlling for persistence. These findings suggest that the persistence of the predictors needs to be taken into account when one measures predictability in currency markets. Finally, out-of-sample forecast performance is also presented.     

Limitations of portfolio diversification through fat tails of the return Distributions: Some empirical evidence

This study investigates the level of risk due to fat tails of the return distribution and the changes of tail fatness (TF) through portfolio diversification. TF is not eliminated through portfolio diversification, and, interestingly, the positive tail has declining fatness until a certain level is reached, while the negative tail has rising fatness. This indicates that fat tails are highly relevant to common factors on systematic risk and that the relevance of common factors is higher for the negative tail compared to the positive tail. In the portfolio diversification effect, the declining fatness of the positive tail further reduces risk, but the rising fatness of the negative tail does not contribute to this effect. The asymmetry between the fatness of the positive and negative tails in the return distribution corresponds to the asymmetry of the trade-off relationship between loss avoidance and profit sacrifice that is expected as a consequence of portfolio diversification. Investors use portfolio diversification to reduce their risk of suffering high losses, but following this strategy means sacrificing high-profit potential. Our study provides empirical confirmation for the practical limitation of portfolio diversification and explains why investors with diversified portfolios suffer high losses from market crashes. An examination of the Northeast Asian stock markets of China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan show identical results.     

新冠疫情对我国中小企业经济状况的影响及对策分析

2020年以来,新冠疫情对我国中小企业的影响巨大。论文从收入、成本、现金流三个方面分析了疫情下我国中小企业的现状及可采取的对策,以期助力中小企业渡过难关。     

混合型基金绩效评估及驱动因素分析——基于DEA-Tobit模型

将随机选出的混合型基金作为研究样本,采用DEA-Tobit二阶段模型进行研究.首先利用数据包络模型对样本进行绩效评估,在此基础上,利用Tobit模型研究相关指标对于基金绩效的影响机制.结果表明,基金本身所面临的风险收益因素以及基金经理团队稳定性对于基金绩效均具显著影响.最后结合实证结果就提升中国基金绩效提出相关的建议.     

How have the dependence structures between stock markets and economic factors changed during the COVID-19 pandemic?

This study investigates how the dependence structures between stock markets and economic factors have changed during the COVID-19 pandemic using the dynamic model averaging approach. A series of economic factors such as commodity markets, cryptocurrency, monetary policy, international capital flows, and market uncertainty indices are considered. We find that the importance of economic variables and the sign and size of their coefficients are significantly different from those before the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock markets are most influenced by economic factors during the COVID-19 outbreak.     

农业企业采纳大数据技术影响因素研究——基于ISM模型的实证分析

为提升大数据技术在农业领域的应用深度与广度,进一步挖掘农业数据资源,推动农业供给侧改革。基于189份农业企业调研数据,运用ISM模型,分析了农业企业采纳大数据技术影响因素及其关联关系与递阶层次结构。提出加大技术的研发力度,提高核心设备和技术的自主知识产权水平,加强大数据技术产业协作,培养企业数据管理意识与大数据技术型人才,加强大数据技术公共示范工程的宣传作用等对策建议。